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The Big and Detailed Picture on "Local"

Twice a year, BIA/Kelsey publishes a U.S. Local Media Annual Forecast that provides the big picture on ‘Local.’ The forecast, a comprehensive and authoritative view of the local media landscape, delivers an objective and credible five-year market outlook while analyzing the key drivers and assumptions behind top-line numbers.

In addition to the local media forecast, BIA/Kelsey also releases quarterly forecasts for television and radio in its financial publications, Investing In and a forecast for Global Yellow Pages.

U.S. Local Media Forecast

BIA/Kelsey’s U.S. Local Media Forecast consists of 12 key segments: newspapers, direct mail, television, radio, print Yellow Pages, out of home (non-digital), cable television, magazines, online/interactive, mobile, Internet Yellow Pages, and other interactive revenues generated by traditional media players.

The forecasts draw from proprietary data; company, industry and country information in the public domain; and discussions with clients and non-clients about the direction and pace of development in the local media marketplace. Clients of BIA/Kelsey’s Continuous Advisory Services receive different elements of the firm’s forecasts. The complete forecast, U.S. Local Media Forecast: Full Edition, is available for individual sale.

The forecast also serves as the foundation for BIA/Kelsey's Media Ad View Reports, market-specific reports that provide a comprehensive picture of the state of local media advertising and a five-year projection for 12 media categories in 362 markets across the nation.

The following offers publically available information from published forecasts.

DATE PUBLICLY RELEASED FINDINGS
April 4, 2013 U.S. Mobile Local Ad Revenues to Reach $9.1 Billion in 2017
March 18, 2013 U.S. Local Media Ad Revenues to Grow from $132.5B in 2012 to $148.8B in 2017
November 26, 2012 U.S. Social Media Ad Revenues to Grow from $4.6B in 2012 to $9.2B in 2016
November 14, 2012 U.S. Local Online/Interactive/Digital Ad Revenues to Reach $38.1B in 2016
November 5, 2012 U.S. Mobile Local Ad Revenues to Grow from $664M in 2011 to $5.8B in 2016
September 17, 2012 U.S. Consumer Spending on Online Deals to Reach $3.6B in 2012
July 16, 2012 Digital Ad Revenues for Local Media to Grow 13.1% in 2012, According to BIA/Kelsey
May 15, 2012 U.S. Social Media Ad Spending to Reach $9.8 Billion by 2016
April 18, 2012 Mobile Local Search Volume Will Surpass Desktop Local Search in 2015
March 20, 2012 U.S. Local Digital Ad Revenues Remain Strong, Bolstering Slower Growth Overall in Local Media Market
November 14, 2011 U.S. Social Local Advertising Revenues to Reach $2.3 Billion in 2015
November 7, 2011 U.S. Local Digital Advertising Revenues Continue Upward in 2011 Despite Slow-Growth Economy, According to BIA/Kelsey
September 13, 2011 BIA/Kelsey Revises Deals Forecast Upward Slightly, Due to More Entrants, Rapid Market Expansion and Growing Consumer Adoption
August 30, 2011 Digital Advertising, Performance and Retention Solutions Will Be 70% of SMB Marketing Budgets by 2015
June 23, 2011 U.S. Mobile Local Ad Revenues to Grow From $404 Million in 2010 to $2.8 Billion in 2015
May 18, 2011 Local Search Advertising Revenues to Reach $8.2
Billion by 2015
May 2, 2011 Social Media Ad Spending to Reach $8.3 Billion in 2015
March 21, 2011 BIA/Kelsey Forecasts U.S. Local Digital Ad Revenues to Nearly Double to $42.5B by 2015 from $21.7B in 2010

Television, Radio and Global Yellow Pages Forecasts

BIA/Kelsey releases quarterly forecasts for radio and television in our Investing In publications. These financial guides report information about transactions, trends, revenues, owners, and market and station specific information.

Every other year, BIA/Kelsey publishes Global Yellow Pages report, a comprehensive examination of the markets and companies that comprise the global Yellow Pages industry. This report captures key metrics, including revenues, growth rates, titles and distribution, employees, size of sales force, online and mobile products, prominent executives, advertisers, and major developments and challenges. The most recent edition was published in December 2011.

The following offers publically available information from published forecasts.

FORECAST PUBLICLY RELEASED FINDINGS
Investing In Television® Reports

(View publications)
May 1, 2012 - Local TV Revenues Down 7.8% in 2011; Presidential Election and Increase in Online Expected to Boost Numbers to $20.3 Billion This Year

April 29, 2011 - Local Television Revenues Rose 23.2% to $19.4 Billion in 2010, Driven by Political Campaigns and National Advertising

Dec. 20, 2011 - BIA/Kelsey Expects Local TV Ad Revenues to End the Year At $18.5 Billion, Up 17% From 2009; Forecasts Decline in 2011

Investing In Radio® Reports

(View publications)
April 10, 2012 - Radio Industry Revenues Flat in 2011, While Online Revenues Jump 15.1%

November 29, 2011 - BIA/Kelsey Revises Radio Industry Revenue Estimates for 2011 and 2012; Expects Increases of 3.5% for Over-the-Air and 15.1% for Online in 2012

Global Yellow Pages Forecast (2011-2015) Dec. 6, 2011 - BIA/Kelsey Estimates 2011 Global Yellow Pages Revenues at $23.4 Billion
Global Yellow Pages Forecast (2009-2014) Mid-year Update July 13, 2010 - Digital Offerings to Account for 39% of Global Yellow Pages Revenues by 2014

 


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Local Media Forecasts

Online Properties and Political Ads Lift Local TV Station Over-The-Air Revenues by 13.2% in 2012 (read)

U.S. Social Ad Revenues to Reach $11B in 2017 (read)

BIA/Kelsey Forecasts U.S. Mobile Local Ad Revenues to Reach $9.1 Billion in 2017 (read)

Radio Stations See Online Growth Increasing at Faster Pace, as Industry Revenues Rose Slightly in 2012 (read)

U.S. Local Media Ad Revenues to Grow from $132.5B in 2012 to $148.8B in 2017 (read)

Forecast Quotes

“Our analysis indicates that as advertisers move to online, mobile and, particularly, the variants of social media, we are fast approaching a tipping point where digital media will soon become a dominant segment of the local advertising marketplace.” —Tom Buono, CEO, BIA/Kelsey

“To date, local targeting has not been widely adopted by SMBs or national brands. However, the paradigm is moving to performance, with Facebook and other networks focused on improving format, creative and targeting to boost rates and drive deeper ad engagement. We expect social local ad spend to steadily increase through 2015, especially as smaller businesses learn how to leverage targeting features to optimize results.” —Jed Williams, Analyst and Program Director, Social Local Media, BIA/Kelsey